The future of theFalloutseries is uncertain.Fallout 76took theFalloutformula and transformed it into a large multiplayer experience, but more than two years later, even Todd Howard has claimed that the last release in the series “let a lot of people down.”
Fallout 5, however, could stand to be in a better position than eitherFallout 4orFallout 76. With the major RPG studios attempting to create a roleplaying experience which feels truly “next-gen,” the long wait forFallout 5could be its greatest advantage.
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Fallout 4 and Fallout 76
It’s been no secret that the last two Bethesda-madeFalloutgames disappointed a lot of fans, particularlyFallout 76.Itwas announced atE3 2018, leading some to speculate that the concurrent announcement ofThe Elder Scrolls 6at the same event was intended to deflect attention and potential criticism. Many fans were frustrated to see a franchise which had always been single player get a multiplayer game instead of a new single player experience and story. To make matters worse, therelease ofFallout 76was plagued with bugs. Despite Bethesda games being known for their buggy launches in the past - includingSkyrim-Fallout 76’s launch was met with particular backlash, adding to the criticism which came with the game’s conception as a multiplayer.
Fallout 4was better received, but was not without its criticisms. Released almost exactly 4 years afterSkyrim,Fallout 4struggled to feel like that next-generational step forward that many fans were hoping to see in the series. With expectations set extremely high after the immensesuccess ofThe Elder Scrolls 5, which had already sold over 20 million copies three years after its launch, some common flaws in Bethesda RPGs stood out more than usual. The game’s main plot, for example, was one of its weaker points. Players were tasked with finding their missing child, but when they do the game’s final act simply involves deciding which factions the player is going to side with in the Commonwealth instead of feeling as character-driven as the beginning.
The decision to include voiced player characters was also controversial, with some feeling that, combined with the game’s prescriptive opening sequence, removed a lot of roleplaying flexibility from the game. Despite this,Fallout 4was ultimately a financial success. What it was unable to do, however, was feel like the same breakthrough thatSkyrimwas when it came out in 2011, despite sharing many of its flaws.
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Fallout 5’s Greatest Advantage
It’s likely thatFallout 5is at least a decade away. Bethesda is currently working on a new sci-fi IP namedStarfield, which is set to be the studio’s first new franchise in over two decades. So far not much has been revealed aboutStarfield, but it is reported to be an open-world sci-fi RPG which will allow the player to travel between multiple planets. It has been confirmed thatThe Elder Scrolls 6will not release until afterStarfield.This likely means thatStarfieldwill release at some point in the next two years,The Elder Scrolls 6can be expected around 2026at the earliest, and thatFallout 5is a long way away.
This could beFallout 5’s greatest strength, however. A new IP likeStarfieldcould give Bethesda a huge and rare opportunity to experiment with a less risky IP than either of its flagship franchises, developing some new ideas which could help bring the Bethesda open-world RPG formula into the next generation of gaming. IfStarfieldends up significantly diverging from the standard Bethesda first-person open-world RPG,The Elder Scrolls 6could be a great opportunity for the studio to consolidate some of the lessons fromStarfieldand apply them to a more familiar format.
There is a risk thatFallout 5could fall victim to one of the same problems that facedFallout 4. IfThe Elder Scrolls 6manages to step out ofSkyrim’s shadow and deliver a truly next-gen RPG experience, it may be difficult forFallout 5to feel like it’s doing the same. If nothing else, however, fans ofFalloutcould see the principles developed overStarfieldandThe Elder Scrolls 6applied inFallout 5, finally making it feel like the series has made a big step forward.
It’s also possible that other RPGs developed during the long wait forFallout 5will introduce new concepts and mechanics which will be to the series' benefit. With the now infamouslybuggy release ofCyberpunk 2077fresh is many gamers' minds, many fans may be willing to wait a lot longer for the nextFalloutgame if it affords Bethesda a longer development timeline as well.
The Future of Fallout
It is possible, however, that the nextFalloutgame may not be as far away as fans think. Bethesda may be busy working onStarfieldand the nextElder Scrolls, but it’s possible that the studio will get a third-party developer to create aFalloutgame just as it did with Obsidian Entertainment andFallout: New Vegas. While the relationship betweenBethesda and Obsidianlikely deteriorated after the game’s launch saw Obsidian miss out on a vital bonus by one Metacritic percentile, it’s possible that another studio might be willing to makeFallout: New Vegas 2, whether it be a direct sequel or a spiritual successor.
The future ofFalloutmay be uncertain, but for now that most likely bodes better for the post-apocalyptic role-playings series than a rushed release damaging its reputation further. Whether or not the series will be able to return after a long hiatus and still draw fans will likely depend onBethesda’s reputation after the release ofThe Elder Scrolls 6.
